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With less than a month until the U.S. presidential election, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is too close to call, according to the latest I&I/TIPP poll. While Harris holds a narrow lead in the national vote, Trump maintains a stronger edge when it comes to voter trust on key issues, making the contest highly competitive as both candidates vie for critical independent voters.
Poll results indicate a tight race
The I&I/TIPP poll, conducted between October 2-4, surveyed 997 likely voters nationwide. It showed Harris leading with 49% of the vote compared to Trump’s 46%. However, the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points indicates that the race remains statistically tied.
Among party lines, 94% of Democrats support Harris, while 93% of Republicans back Trump. The decisive factor appears to lie with independent voters. Harris holds a significant lead among independents, securing 52% of their support compared to Trump’s 36%. However, 10% of independents remain undecided, and 2% indicated they would vote for a third-party candidate, highlighting the potential for last-minute shifts.
Impact of third-party candidates
The inclusion of third-party candidates does little to change the overall dynamics. When voters were presented with additional options, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris still led Trump by a 48% to 45% margin. Kennedy garnered 2%, while other third-party candidates, including Green Party candidate Jill Stein and activist Cornel West, registered minimal support.
Voters’ issue-based preferences
While Harris maintains a narrow lead in overall voter preference, Trump performs better on several critical national issues. The poll asked voters which candidate they trust more on various concerns. Trump leads on national security (50% to Harris’s 45%), securing the border (54% to 41%), and reducing crime (48% to 46%). He also holds a slight advantage on economic issues such as growing the economy and lowering the national debt.
Harris, on the other hand, has a small edge on issues like ensuring energy security (48% to Trump’s 47%) and reducing taxes (48% to 45%).
Perception vs. reality
Interestingly, the poll reveals a difference between voter expectations and individual voting intentions. While 44% of voters expect Harris to win, 42% believe most of their neighbors would vote for Trump. This contrast suggests the possibility of “silent voters” who may not openly express their preference for Trump but could impact the election’s outcome, a phenomenon observed in past elections.
Challenges ahead
As both candidates work to solidify support ahead of Election Day, winning over undecided and independent voters remains key. Independent voters were instrumental in Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, and Harris will need to replicate that success to maintain her lead.
While Harris appears to have an advantage in the popular vote, Trump’s stronghold in key battleground states means the election is far from decided. The results of the I&I/TIPP poll indicate that, much like in 2016 and 2020, the final outcome may hinge on a small number of swing states and voter turnout in the final days leading up to November 5.
