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The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, released by ECLAC on December 18, highlights a concerning trend: Haiti and Cuba are the only nations in the region expected to endure three consecutive years of economic decline from 2022 to 2025.
The report also reveals the broader context of slow regional growth, with a projected average of 2.2% for 2024 and 2.4% for 2025. However, Haiti and Cuba’s economies stand out for their continued negative trajectory.
Haiti’s economy has been severely affected by ongoing political instability, social unrest, and a deteriorating humanitarian situation. According to ECLAC, the country’s GDP shrank by 1.9% in 2023 and is expected to contract further, by 4.0%, in 2024. For 2025, a slight improvement is projected, with a contraction of 0.5%. Despite this moderation, Haiti remains deeply mired in economic challenges that limit recovery.
Informality dominates Haiti’s labor market, and the country continues to face difficulty attracting investment or implementing policies to boost productivity. The report underscores the urgent need for stabilization efforts and external support to pave the way for economic recovery.
Cuba’s economy is also struggling, weighed down by an energy crisis and reduced export revenues. ECLAC projects Cuba’s GDP will shrink by 1.0% in 2023 and 2024, followed by a slight improvement in 2025 with a contraction of 0.1%. These figures highlight three consecutive years of economic decline, a trend not seen since the early 1990s.
The island’s economy has been severely impacted by energy shortages, which have disrupted industries, agriculture, and public services. Economist Omar Everleny predicts the country’s GDP could contract by up to 4% in 2024, compounding the challenges of the previous years. Cuba’s government, however, maintains a more optimistic outlook, with Economy Minister Joaquín Alonso projecting modest growth of 1% for 2025.
Key sectors, including agriculture, tourism, and sugar production, performed below expectations in 2023. Additionally, export revenues dropped by $900 million, or 10% less than planned, while imports fell 18% below projections.
In contrast to Haiti and Cuba, the Dominican Republic continues to show economic resilience and growth. ECLAC projects a robust growth rate of 5.2% in 2024, driven by strong performance in tourism, construction, and manufacturing. The Dominican Republic remains one of the few bright spots in the region, illustrating its ability to attract investment and maintain economic stability.
ECLAC’s report calls for comprehensive reforms to address the underlying challenges in Haiti, Cuba, and other nations facing economic hardship. Key recommendations include:
- Strengthening Public Finances: Countries need to improve tax collection and reduce evasion to increase revenue for critical investments.
- Boosting Productivity: Targeted policies to modernize industries, improve infrastructure, and attract foreign investment are essential.
- Enhancing Regional Cooperation: Neighboring countries, including Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba, could benefit from collaboration in trade, energy, and disaster resilience efforts.
As the region grapples with slow growth, the divergent economic trajectories of Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic illustrate the complexity of economic challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean. While Haiti and Cuba struggle with contraction, the Dominican Republic offers a model of growth that could inspire policy shifts in neighboring nations.
